Nine Greater Middlesex Conference high schools appear to have secured berths for the NJSIAA football playoffs, and at least five league members have an outside shot to qualify for the postseason.
The cutoff for the state playoffs is this weekend. The NJSIAA on Sunday will announce official seeds for the playoffs.
The Top 16 teams as rated by the United Power Ranking (UPR) system in each of the 10 public school groups will earn postseason berths.
Qualifiers from those 10 public school groups will be classified into 20 playoff sections based on northing numbers (longitudinal and latitudinal coordinates that geographically dictate how schools are classified).
Radio personality Mike Pavlichko, who provides play-by-play and color commentary of Central Jersey games and hosts Football USA on WCTC 1450 AM in New Brunswick, helped MyCentralJersey.com break down playoff scenarios for GMC schools.
Pavlichko is recognized as one of the state’s leading experts on the newly implemented UPR system, a hybrid formula that ranks schools based on their Born Power Index rating (60 percent of the formula) and Power Points rating (40 percent of the formula).
Following is an analysis of unofficial playoff qualifiers and postseason bubble teams from the GMC based on MyCentralJersey.com’s projections and input from Pavlichko and some of the league’s head coaches.
CENTRAL GROUP V
Four GMC schools have unofficially secured playoff berths in Central Group V. They are South Brunswick, Sayreville, North Brunswick and Edison.
The winner of Friday’s game between South Brunswick and Sayreville will likely secure the top seed in the section.
South Brunswick likely cannot fall below a No. 2 seed.
North Brunswick, which enters this weekend’s action as the No. 3 seed, appears to have clinched a first-round home game.
Sayreville, which owns a head-to-head win over North Brunswick, can’t be seeded below the Raiders should North Brunswick finish one spot ahead of the Bombers in the UPR rankings at the time of the cutoff.
Edison enters this weekend’s action as the No. 6 seed in the section and likely will not be seeded higher. With a win over Plainfield (1-6) on Saturday, Edison should be able to assure itself of at least a No. 7 seed, but likely a No. 6 seed.
NORTH 2 GROUP V
With a win over three-time defending sectional champion Westfield (2-5), against which it is a prohibitive favorite, Piscataway will clinch the top seed in the section.
CENTRAL GROUP I
Defending sectional champion Middlesex is currently the No. 4 seed, one spot behind Florence.
Middlesex could claim the No. 3 seed with a win over Metuchen (0-6) and a Florence loss to New Egypt (2-4).
Asbury Park currently has a UPR ranking of 11.8 but sits as the No. 6 seed in Central Group I behind No. 5 seed Keansburg, whose UPR ranking is 16.2, because the Titans defeated the Blue Bishops head-to-head. Asbury Park appears to be the only team in the section with an outside chance to overtake Middlesex for the No. 4 seed.
Such a maneuver is contingent upon Keyport and or Maple Shade leaping ahead of Keansburg in the UPR and other dominoes falling for Asbury Park.
NORTH 2 GROUP IV
Colonia appears to have secured a berth. The Patriots enter this weekend’s action as the No. 7 seed in the section.
NON-PUBLIC QUALIFIERS
St. Joseph and Bishop Ahr will compete in the Non-Public Group IV and Non-Public Group III playoffs, respectively, with those brackets being seeded via a committee on Sunday.
BUBBLE TEAMS
Old Bridge is currently ranked No. 18 in the South Group V UPR. The Knights apparently not only need to defeat Elizabeth on Friday by at least 21 points to receive enough credit in the Born Power Index to climb up in the UPR, but they would need help from several other schools to qualify in Central Group V.
Woodbridge, currently ranked No. 18 in North Group IV UPR, apparently must defeat Colonia by at least six points on Friday night to receive enough credit in the Born Power Index to climb up in the UPR and may need Barringer, Orange and Randolph to all loses games to qualify in North 2 Group IV. Barringer plays West Orange (2-6), Orange plays Bellville (4-3) and Randolph plays West Morris (4-3) this weekend.
The winner of Friday’s game between South Plainfield and Carteret, who are currently ranked No. 17 and No. 18, respectively, in North Group III UPR, has an outside chance to make the playoffs. Even with a win, neither team is guaranteed a Central Group III postseason berth. The outcome of a game between Voorhees, which is currently ranked No. 16 in North Group III UPR, and defending sectional champion North Hunterdon holds at least one key to the fortunes of Carteret and South Plainifeld.
South River is currently ranked No. 19 in South Group II UPR. The Rams must defeat Bishop Ahr (4-4) and need a good amount of help to qualify in Central Group II.
Jon Fass of Gridiron New Jersey has a complete picture of how the sections would be seeded if the playoff began today.
The playoffs will commence on the weekend of Nov. 2-3. The public sectional finals and non-public semifinals will be contested on the weekend of Nov. 16-17.
The newly implemented public "Bowl Games" and non-public finals will be played on Nov. 23, Nov. 24, Nov. 30 and Dec. 1.
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